GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL?

There is no easier way of making a fool of yourself than trying to predict things and this is especially true where racing is concerned where injuries to the participants, both equine and human are almost inevitable.

The retirement of Julian Pritchard has left the area with some big riding boots to fill, because the Ledbury based jockey has won the Area Title twelve times in the last fifteen years.

Based on recent evidence, any potential champion needs to score somewhere in the region of between 60 and 70 points to have any chance of taking the area title, but such was Pritchard’s dominance that only Adrian Wintle has had the potential to reach this total in the past.

Wintle and his wife Hannah now run a yard down in Westbury on Severn but he should be able to organise riding their horses and fitting this in with commitments elsewhere.

The support of a major stable is just one requirement for any potential Champion but he seems to be an odds on favourite with the strength of Andy Hobbs stable to call upon, and it would be a major surprise if he’s not crowned champion in June 2008.

Wintle finished well clear of Mark Wall last year but the latter could upset the apple cart if concentrating his efforts in the West Midlands, although his services are always in demand in other areas.

Wall enjoyed a successful association with Joanne Paddocks Chipping Campden stable last year so could still be a Championship contender in the final weeks of the season.

Geoff Barfoot Saunt finished in fourth place last year, but does not get the rides his talents deserve and will do well to get into the frame.

Liam Payter took the novice title back in 2004 and cemented his position by finishing third in the title race the following season. Given the right opportunities it is not difficult seeing him make a major impact in 2008.

He could be one of the surprise packages now that he is attached to Graeme McPhersons Martin Hills stable near Stow on the Wold. The yard has several interesting newcomers and if any successes came in this area, this could have a significant impact on his title challenge. His chances would be enhanced if he were able to secure outside rides.

Ran Morgan and his brother Luke are no strangers to success and both have formidable records in the North of England. Their abilities are not in doubt and Ran could be a dark horse if he picks up the majority of rides vacated by Julian Pritchard at Fergal O’Briens Naunton stable.

After a quiet year in 2005 this yard showed their true potential last season and there is no reason to believe that they cannot enjoy similar successes in 2008.

Morgan replaced Ed Walker at Emma Baker’s yard at Naunton last season. The Naunton stable had a quiet time by its normal standards but they will provide useful back up support as will Sarah Stafford’s yard at nearby Guiting Power.

While Dick Baimbridge continues to provide the ammunition it is difficult seeing any other lady jockey having sufficient firepower to dislodge Claire Allen from her seat at the top of the Ladies Championship.

Polly Gundry did provide some opposition a year or so ago but she is now based down in the West Country so that challenge has evaporated.

Jane Williams is the only person with the potential to cause an upset, but connections pick and choose their engagements and would need to concentrate their efforts nearer to home to make an impact.

It is difficult seeing beyond Dick Baimbridge and Andy Hobbs in the quest to become Leading Trainer in the Area. These two heavyweights of the Point-to-Point field have an unequalled record in the area and it would be unrealistic to nominate another trainer with sufficient horses to push them off their lofty perch.

The former enjoyed yet another phenomenal season in 2007 but will be missing Aarons Run and Run to Space, although it would be unwise to write him off on the basis of that.

Hobbs enjoyed a great year in 2006 but the dice did not roll in his favour last year and on the premise that this is unlikely to happen twice he could come out on top.

Past evidence suggests that a couple of wins (or about 15 points) is sufficient to win the Novice Riders Title. Unless somebody is lurking in the wings with a horse capable of winning a couple of races it is suggested that Sam Drinkwater could take this title in 2008.

The youngster took some time to gel with his partner Gullabill last season but they eventually came good when taking an Albrighton Woodland Maiden at the end of the season.

After communication problems with his mount earlier in the season it was good to see that they both gained from that experience to come home worthy winners. Any rough edges he may have had will have been removed at Nigel Twiston Davies over the summer and he should start the new season a more accomplished rider.

With so many new horses likely to be running during the 2008 season, nominating potential winners of the leading, novice horse and mares awards would be like looking for a needle in a haystack.

To help you make up your own mind – check out the information in the seasonal preview on this site.